There has basically only been 3 long-term bond market cycles over the past century or so for U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds. The 1st from 1920-1959 was rangebound interest rates from around 2% to 4%. That was due to a combination of deflation following the Great Depression and a cap on rates to help fund World War II in the 1940s. Inflation picked up in the 1960s and rates followed its lead. Prices spiked even higher in the 1970s and inflation … Continue reading

To start the year the market has turned more volatile while it deals with geopolitical and monetary policy uncertainty. In the last few days, I’ve had 3-4 clients express concern over what has been happening in the markets so far in 2022. I’m sure there are others who are thinking about reaching out to me to get more defensive. That’s absolutely understandable. But let’s put some perspective on the current market correction. The large-cap S&P 500 closed in correction territory … Continue reading

Some important facts to put losses in the stock market into perspective. The average drawdown (loss) from peak-to-trough in a given year in the U.S. stock market going back to 1928 is: -16.3%. And you can see from the image below, about two-thirds of the time there has been a double-digit correction (-10 to -20%) at some point during the calendar year:   These averages are skewed a little higher because of all of the crashes throughout the 1930s, but … Continue reading

I am certainly not trying to scare anyone here, but only add some sanity to the conversation. Over and over again, in my discussion with folks interested in my financial services and planning as well as some long-time clients, they clearly have forgotten 2000, 2001, 2002, and 2008. And the lightning-quick market rebound in March 2020 from the COVID virus, many don’t seem to believe that markets won’t go down – at least not for a year or longer. So … Continue reading

I’m very excited to announce that my 5th book has just been published on amazon. In 2021 and beyond, retirees will need better income withdrawal and Required Minimum Distribution (RMD) strategies to survive a 25-30+ retirement. Why? The Problems: The traditional 60/40 portfolio (60% stocks and 40% bonds) and the “4% Rule” can no longer be counted on for not outliving your money in retirement. You will learn precisely why the author and so many others believe this as you … Continue reading